ENTERTAINMENT LISTS TELL US WHERE we have been, where we should go--and more importantly, what not to do. In our part-two look at entertainment businesses, Nielsen showed us that 2006 had a little bit of all three.
Looking at Nielsen's top 10 list of Web brands, in terms of page views, Yahoo was easily the No. 1 site, followed by the usual suspects: MySpace, Google, eBay, MSN and AOL. The best--and only old-line traditional media/network brand--on the list was Nickelodeon, coming in at eighth place. Interestingly, as a Web brand, the large cable operator, Comcast, made it into ninth place.
The top theatrical box office film was overwhelmingly Walt Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl," with almost $425 million in U.S. revenues. The animated movie "Cars," also from Disney, came in second. Three other animated movies also made the top 10: "Ice Age: The Meltdown," "Over the Hedge" and "Happy Feet."
Only one comedy made the list: "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby."
The lack of comedies here might suggest a moratorium on big-budget theatrical comedies in 2007 with massive special effects. Studios won't get much bang for their buck. Or at least, don't expect much from low-budget comedy affairs. On the other hand, an animated film is good business.
In the music industry, one might do well to be in the high-school music business. Disney Channel's roaring success "High School Musical" was the best-selling album of the year. Rascal Flatts' "Me and My Gang" came in second. "American "Idol" favorite Carrie Underwood's "Some Hearts" came in third.
Looking to get into the ringtone business? Apparently, hordes want to know what Akon, Justin Timberlake, Hinder and Ludacris are up to. Consumers picked up those artists' music more than any other when it comes to phones.
The top 10 list of advertisers that spend the most online include GUS plc, the U.K. owners of the Experian credit service; Vonage, the Internet phone service company; NetFlix, the DVD rental company, NexTag, a shopping Web site; and the wireless, phone and Internet company Verizon. Nielsen says GUS spent nearly $700 million online this year--more than twice as much as second-place Vonage.
In the book business, it would be best to change your name to Patterson. Because this year, suspense writer James Patterson had four of the top 10 in best-selling hardcovers: "Beach Road," "The 5th Horseman," "Cross" and "Judge & Jury." Mitch Albom had the No. 1 fictional hardcover: "For One More Day."
In a newer category, top 10 audio books--which get a lot of play in cars--two of Patterson's books made the chart. Notably, two of the top 10 books are about language--and a signpost for the changing direction of culture: The second-best-selling audio book was "Complete Spanish: The Basics;" and in tenth place, "Learn In Your Car: Spanish Level 1."
Of course, for traditional media, it's ad spending that drives everything. Below is a list of Nielsen Monitor-Plus' ad spending:
Top 10 Advertisings In U.S. In 2006
1. Procter & Gamble-$2,903,645,851
2. General Motors Corp.-$1,953,993,498
3. AT&T Inc.-$1,440,567,658
4. Ford Motor Co. $1,429,333,335
5. DaimlerChrysler AG $1,299,331,574
6. Time Warner Inc. $1,165,728,375
7. Verizon Communications Inc. $1,131,024,907
8. Toyota Motor Corp. $1,087,515,526
9. Altria Group Inc. $1,038,685,970
10. Walt Disney Co. $1,028,170,671
Note: Data from Jan. 1-Oct. 31, 2006. Based on spending estimates in the following media: Network TV, Cable TV, Spot TV, Syndicated TV, Hispanic TV, Nat'l/Local Magazines, Network/Spot Radio, Outdoor, FSI (CPGs only), Nat'l/Local Newspapers (display ads only), Nat'l/Local Sunday Supplements.
MediaDailyNews.com
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
YouTube software threat to Google plans
YouTube’s failure to complete a key piece of anti-piracy software as promised could represent a serious obstacle to efforts by Google, its new owner, to forge closer relations with the media and entertainment industry.
The video website, the internet sensation of 2006, promised in September the software would be ready by the end of this year. Known as a “content identification system”, the technology is meant to make it possible to track down copyrighted music or video on YouTube, making it the first line of defence against piracy on the wildly popular website.
YouTube said on Friday the technology would not be formally launched this year and YouTube’s offices were closed until the new year. While providing no further details about when the system would be made formally available, it said tests of the system had been under way with some media companies since October and the system remained “on track”.
Mike McGuire, a digital media analyst at Gartner, said the important part systems such as this played in building better relations between internet companies such as YouTube and the traditional media industry meant there was likely to be little patience for missed deadlines. “The technology industry really has to start living up to the media industry’s expectations,” he said.
If the delay lasts for more than a week or two into the new year, suggesting more than just a slight technical hitch, “this is certainly going to be a serious issue”, Mr McGuire added.
Leading music companies have already made clear they see completion of YouTube’s anti-piracy technology as an important step in any closer co-operation. Failure to build adequate systems to protect copyright owners could also add to the risk of legal action against the site.
Doug Morris, chief executive of Universal Music Group, hinted at legal action against YouTube late last summer, accusing both it and MySpace of being “content infringers [that] owe us tens of millions of dollars”. Universal went on to sue MySpace but was one of the companies to reach a partnership with YouTube, partly based on the ability of its promised content identification system to track down copyrighted music.
The delay to the software could also spell wider problems for Google, which has been trying to negotiate partnerships that will give it access to content from a number of big media and entertainment companies. The company could not immediately be reached for comment.
On Friday night, a YouTube spokeswoman said the company had never promised general availability by the end of the year.
Financial Times
The video website, the internet sensation of 2006, promised in September the software would be ready by the end of this year. Known as a “content identification system”, the technology is meant to make it possible to track down copyrighted music or video on YouTube, making it the first line of defence against piracy on the wildly popular website.
YouTube said on Friday the technology would not be formally launched this year and YouTube’s offices were closed until the new year. While providing no further details about when the system would be made formally available, it said tests of the system had been under way with some media companies since October and the system remained “on track”.
Mike McGuire, a digital media analyst at Gartner, said the important part systems such as this played in building better relations between internet companies such as YouTube and the traditional media industry meant there was likely to be little patience for missed deadlines. “The technology industry really has to start living up to the media industry’s expectations,” he said.
If the delay lasts for more than a week or two into the new year, suggesting more than just a slight technical hitch, “this is certainly going to be a serious issue”, Mr McGuire added.
Leading music companies have already made clear they see completion of YouTube’s anti-piracy technology as an important step in any closer co-operation. Failure to build adequate systems to protect copyright owners could also add to the risk of legal action against the site.
Doug Morris, chief executive of Universal Music Group, hinted at legal action against YouTube late last summer, accusing both it and MySpace of being “content infringers [that] owe us tens of millions of dollars”. Universal went on to sue MySpace but was one of the companies to reach a partnership with YouTube, partly based on the ability of its promised content identification system to track down copyrighted music.
The delay to the software could also spell wider problems for Google, which has been trying to negotiate partnerships that will give it access to content from a number of big media and entertainment companies. The company could not immediately be reached for comment.
On Friday night, a YouTube spokeswoman said the company had never promised general availability by the end of the year.
Financial Times
Predictions 2007
Yes, I'm at it again, but this year I promise to be a bit more pared down, a bit more to the point. I had nearly 20 predictions last year, I'm hoping that by the time I lift my fingers from the keyboard I'll have a few less. So Happy New Year, and to business:
1. Thanks to Google's dominance in search and media and a complacent DOJ, Microsoft will buy a better position in online media. Acknowledging that it can't build it, Microsoft will shop its way into a dominant position. AOL, Yahoo, or IAC will be leading candidates for acquisition. Microsoft will name a strong second in command to Steve Ballmer who will run their entire media division after this acquisition. If that person is not Steve Berkowitz, he will leave.
1. (a) If Microsoft does not buy AOL, Yahoo will, and failing that, AOL will go public, but the IPO will receive a lukewarm review.
2. A major media outlet will predict that the "Web 2.0" bubble has burst or deflated seriously. The prediction will be wrong. I've been seeing more and more respected voices out there claiming we're in a bubble of some sort or another when it comes to "Web 2.0." I predicted that the meme will have played out in 2006, and I think I was right, but the underlying foundational strength of what created that meme is far too strong to be a bubble or played out.
3. Google will integrate YouTube into its main services. YouTube will be promoted via the "video" tab on Google's home page. YouTube will keeps its name and domain, but the business/sales end will be interchangeable.
4. Related to this, Google Video Ads will dissappoint until Q4 2007. Why? Because advertisers in video have all sorts of structural reasons to not want to work the way Google wants them to work. Until the Fall of 07, when these differences will be worked out, and Google will have a slam dunk quarter in a form of advertising outside of text ads for the first time in its history.
5. Yahoo will not regain its luster, but will take the steps necessary to do so by the end of the year. I am not seeing anything out of Yahoo that says "radical change." There is a lot riding on Panama, but even an excellent new platform needs at least a year to get its footing. Hence, I would not predict a banner year for Yahoo, but a rebuilding year, sort of like the 49ers had this year.
6. eBay will have a major change in executive leadership. This feels overdue.
7. Amazon will continue to push beyond ecommerce into web services, the market will punish it for doing so, and by the end of the year Bezos will be forced to defend his investments as his stock takes a hit for those services' failing to find traction. It's not that I don't believe in Jeff's vision, it's the track record with things like Alexa and the very real sense I have that the market for what Jeff's selling is not yet fully baked.
8. There will be a brief, somewhat irrational spurt of acquisitions related to "content", in particular independent media sites with good demographics and a decent audience profile. I say irrational because by the end of the year, it will be clear why those sites were independent in the first place.
9. Speaking of the content business, it will face a major test as two forces converge to undermine the pageview model: Ajax, on the one hand, and ad blockers on the other. Both will be addressed with alarm and alacrity by industry efforts. By the end of the year, new metrics will emerge to help publishers and marketers understand audience engagement.
10. "Blog 2.0" will become a reality. By this I mean that Version 1.0 blogsites, of which I think Searchblog is a good example, will begin to look dated and fade in comparison to sites that employ better approaches to content management, navigation, intelligent widgets and web services, etc.
11. One major Internet player will really screw up the privacy/trust issue, in a way bigger than even AOL did last year.
1. Thanks to Google's dominance in search and media and a complacent DOJ, Microsoft will buy a better position in online media. Acknowledging that it can't build it, Microsoft will shop its way into a dominant position. AOL, Yahoo, or IAC will be leading candidates for acquisition. Microsoft will name a strong second in command to Steve Ballmer who will run their entire media division after this acquisition. If that person is not Steve Berkowitz, he will leave.
1. (a) If Microsoft does not buy AOL, Yahoo will, and failing that, AOL will go public, but the IPO will receive a lukewarm review.
2. A major media outlet will predict that the "Web 2.0" bubble has burst or deflated seriously. The prediction will be wrong. I've been seeing more and more respected voices out there claiming we're in a bubble of some sort or another when it comes to "Web 2.0." I predicted that the meme will have played out in 2006, and I think I was right, but the underlying foundational strength of what created that meme is far too strong to be a bubble or played out.
3. Google will integrate YouTube into its main services. YouTube will be promoted via the "video" tab on Google's home page. YouTube will keeps its name and domain, but the business/sales end will be interchangeable.
4. Related to this, Google Video Ads will dissappoint until Q4 2007. Why? Because advertisers in video have all sorts of structural reasons to not want to work the way Google wants them to work. Until the Fall of 07, when these differences will be worked out, and Google will have a slam dunk quarter in a form of advertising outside of text ads for the first time in its history.
5. Yahoo will not regain its luster, but will take the steps necessary to do so by the end of the year. I am not seeing anything out of Yahoo that says "radical change." There is a lot riding on Panama, but even an excellent new platform needs at least a year to get its footing. Hence, I would not predict a banner year for Yahoo, but a rebuilding year, sort of like the 49ers had this year.
6. eBay will have a major change in executive leadership. This feels overdue.
7. Amazon will continue to push beyond ecommerce into web services, the market will punish it for doing so, and by the end of the year Bezos will be forced to defend his investments as his stock takes a hit for those services' failing to find traction. It's not that I don't believe in Jeff's vision, it's the track record with things like Alexa and the very real sense I have that the market for what Jeff's selling is not yet fully baked.
8. There will be a brief, somewhat irrational spurt of acquisitions related to "content", in particular independent media sites with good demographics and a decent audience profile. I say irrational because by the end of the year, it will be clear why those sites were independent in the first place.
9. Speaking of the content business, it will face a major test as two forces converge to undermine the pageview model: Ajax, on the one hand, and ad blockers on the other. Both will be addressed with alarm and alacrity by industry efforts. By the end of the year, new metrics will emerge to help publishers and marketers understand audience engagement.
10. "Blog 2.0" will become a reality. By this I mean that Version 1.0 blogsites, of which I think Searchblog is a good example, will begin to look dated and fade in comparison to sites that employ better approaches to content management, navigation, intelligent widgets and web services, etc.
11. One major Internet player will really screw up the privacy/trust issue, in a way bigger than even AOL did last year.
12. The Google founders will find themselves the subject of at least one major "takedown" piece in the mainstream media. The piece will claim they have lost touch with the company they founded, that it has outgrown them, and that they have become enamored of the life of the super wealthy - hobnobbing with stars, flying to exotic locations to kite surf, testing fighter jets and the like. This piece is inevitable, in my view.
13. Allow me, for the third year now, to repeat my mobile prediction in the hope it will come true: Mobile will finally be plugged into the web in a way that makes sense for the average user and a major mobile innovation - the kind that makes us all say - Jeez that was obvious - will occur. At the core of this innovation will be the concept of search. The outlines of such an innovation: it'll be a way for mobile users to gather the unstructured data they leverage every day while talking on the phone and make it useful to their personal web (including email and RSS, in particular). And it will be a business that looks and feels like a Web 2.0 business - leveraging iterative web development practices, open APIs, and innovation in assembly - that makes the leap.
14. Lastly, I will begin work on my second book. Yes, I have an idea...but it's not entirely fleshed out yet... and, I will stop making predictions about FM. It was fine to do last year, but this year, I feel like the business is in a new place, one that feels wrong to predict. It could go in so many great directions this year, I don't want to jinx any of them.
Blog Batellemedia.com
Pressure to Reduce the Cost of Producing TV Commercials
How the YouTube Effect is Impacting Small Agency Clients
Looking forward into 2007 I predict that agencies will come under new kinds of pressure to lower the costs of producing television commercials.
I've been hearing from more and more clients about this issue in recent months and much of what they are talking about is related to the way consumer-created content has been rapidly raising its profile and successfully drawing surprisingly large audiences. Agency clients are catching on to this.
Call it the YouTube effect. Millions of consumers watch amateur videos posted on YouTube.com, more than watch most network spots. And the cost of producing these videos is insignificant even as they generate remarkable levels of buzz.
Some of the YouTube video performances that have drawn millions of viewers were made with absurdly inexpensive web cams mounted on the performer's computer monitor. The overall cost of producing such works is about the same as the price of a lunch at McDonald's
Is it any wonder that client are balking at spending $250,000 or more to produce a :30 spot?
I also believe smaller agencies will feel these cost-reduction pressures more than the larger shops. Or, at least, we'll feel it sooner than the big shops. That's because our clients have more limited budgets, and are more aggressive in their quest to discover lower cost, more effective ways to produce TV spots, so they can put more of their budget into media and other projects.
Like anything else, however, I feel you get what you pay for. Poorly produced spots affect brand image. For the most part, a good idea, cheaply produced, reflects well on the clients' budget, but not so well on the agency that produced it. Even more important, consumers can see the product or service in a different light. If the spot looks cheesy, the product will be perceived as such.
I said "for the most part." That's because there are still plenty of ways to produce spots for a fraction of what they used to cost. Video equipment is more affordable, and a lot of small-to-midsize agencies have their own, and can shoot and edit spots in-house. Plus, there are a lot of ideas that don't warrant costly production, or actually benefit from the look of a smaller production budget.
If this low-cost production trend continues, one day there won't even be a catering budget on the set. That will be a dark day indeed.
AdAge.com
Looking forward into 2007 I predict that agencies will come under new kinds of pressure to lower the costs of producing television commercials.
I've been hearing from more and more clients about this issue in recent months and much of what they are talking about is related to the way consumer-created content has been rapidly raising its profile and successfully drawing surprisingly large audiences. Agency clients are catching on to this.
Call it the YouTube effect. Millions of consumers watch amateur videos posted on YouTube.com, more than watch most network spots. And the cost of producing these videos is insignificant even as they generate remarkable levels of buzz.
Some of the YouTube video performances that have drawn millions of viewers were made with absurdly inexpensive web cams mounted on the performer's computer monitor. The overall cost of producing such works is about the same as the price of a lunch at McDonald's
Is it any wonder that client are balking at spending $250,000 or more to produce a :30 spot?
I also believe smaller agencies will feel these cost-reduction pressures more than the larger shops. Or, at least, we'll feel it sooner than the big shops. That's because our clients have more limited budgets, and are more aggressive in their quest to discover lower cost, more effective ways to produce TV spots, so they can put more of their budget into media and other projects.
Like anything else, however, I feel you get what you pay for. Poorly produced spots affect brand image. For the most part, a good idea, cheaply produced, reflects well on the clients' budget, but not so well on the agency that produced it. Even more important, consumers can see the product or service in a different light. If the spot looks cheesy, the product will be perceived as such.
I said "for the most part." That's because there are still plenty of ways to produce spots for a fraction of what they used to cost. Video equipment is more affordable, and a lot of small-to-midsize agencies have their own, and can shoot and edit spots in-house. Plus, there are a lot of ideas that don't warrant costly production, or actually benefit from the look of a smaller production budget.
If this low-cost production trend continues, one day there won't even be a catering budget on the set. That will be a dark day indeed.
AdAge.com
Mobile Marketing Has Potential (to Be Really Annoying)
Forrester Study Finds Consumers Embrace Data but Are Wary of Ads
The good news for mobile marketing is that advertisers can target by location, demographic and create actionable responses. The bad news? More than three-quarters of Americans are annoyed just thinking about it.
That's the latest finding in a report from Forrester Research on the state of the mobile-marketing industry titled "Is the U.S. Ready for Mobile Marketing?" But while the answer to that question overall is yes, according to Forrester, 79% of online consumers find the idea of ads on their mobile phones annoying and only 3% say they trust text ads on mobile phones. And that means marketers must tread lightly when it comes to mobile advertising, offering something of value in exchange for the message.
Christine Spivey Overby, a Forrester analyst who co-authored the study, said she was surprised by those numbers until she started to think about what consumers were responding to.
"We've grown up with this view of the TV commercial interrupting our favorite program," she said. "There's this ad-equals-interruption mind-set that we have, and when you think about something as personal as the mobile phone that you hold in your hand and carry in your pocket, the idea of a marketer interrupting you while you have the phone, that's an idea that consumers hate. "
Much of that public disdain for mobile marketing may be fueled by bad PR, such as recent TV news reports about consumers getting spam on their phones -- and then having to pay for it through data charges. At first the major carriers were reticent to carry ads on mobile devices, citing the cost of handling customer complaints, and problems such as being forced to give consumers money back on their bills for products the consumers said they didn't request.
Sprint this fall became the first major carrier to announce it would offer ads on its "deck," the landing page for mobile consumers as they access information on the mobile web. (Ads have long appeared on "off-deck" websites, those sites accessed from outside a carrier's portal. Those sites typically are more difficult to access than a carrier's portal and carry far less traffic than a carrier's decks.)
Last week, Verizon Wireless became the second major carrier said it will place banner ads on its deck starting this year. Cingular Wireless, about to be renamed AT&T pending final government approval, has kept mum on its advertising policy. Mobile marketing spending has increased from $45 million in 2005 to an anticipated $150 million in 2006, and is expected to grow to nearly $1.3 billion by 2009, according to research firm Ovum.
It's all about value, wrote Ms. Spivey Overby with Forrester analyst Charles Golvin. The key is to avoid the mind-set that the marketing message will be an interruption and instead give consumers something they want.
"When you get into these intimate media like a mobile phone you have to change the way you think about marketing," Ms. Spivey Overby said. "You have to change the rules. It's a new mobile mindset-replacing the view of interruption with value
The report outlines three ways marketers can use the medium: text messaging, such as offering coupons and short codes; advertising with banner ads on a mobile browser; or creating ad-supported applications and content. But there are pros and cons to each. While text messaging is the most ubiquitous with the highest consumer adoption rate, it's far less immersive and interactive than ad-sponsored games, for example. And carriers are still reticent to allow advertisers to support free content on their service because it cannibalizes what has become a big business of selling ringtones, wallpaper and games.
Ultimately, Forrester advises that marketers consider the medium and the message. Keep the message abbreviated and be sure to measure the response, even using mobile responses to gauge the effectiveness of a broadcast media. Target campaigns to the people most likely to respond -- Gen X and Y are the targets most likely reached through mobile marketing. And adopt a mind-set of value -- Forrester advises finding a consumer who's unfamiliar with the campaign and asking him or her to find the value in it.
While it might be difficult for marketers to adjust their thinking, Ms. Spivey Overby said she sees some good early signs, such as what Toyota is doing with its Yaris brand by sponsoring Fox's mobisodes, a term for short videos for mobile.
Fox is "using shorter, punchier commercials," she said. "But many advertisers who aren't familiar in the space need to turn to their agency or a partner that understands the space to build for this medium."
And despite a negative public perception of mobile marketing, the study says there have been some early successes -- especially when ads are well-targeted and when the value of participating is clear. For example, the study discusses a Cambridge, Mass.-based grocer that replaced its loyalty cards with a mobile phone-based program. About 82% of shoppers now belong to the program.
"Marketers can't dismiss mobile," said Ms. Spivey Overby. "2007 is an exploratory year for most mainstream advertisers and we need to keep this in perspective because it's still a very new market."
AdAge.com
The good news for mobile marketing is that advertisers can target by location, demographic and create actionable responses. The bad news? More than three-quarters of Americans are annoyed just thinking about it.
That's the latest finding in a report from Forrester Research on the state of the mobile-marketing industry titled "Is the U.S. Ready for Mobile Marketing?" But while the answer to that question overall is yes, according to Forrester, 79% of online consumers find the idea of ads on their mobile phones annoying and only 3% say they trust text ads on mobile phones. And that means marketers must tread lightly when it comes to mobile advertising, offering something of value in exchange for the message.
Christine Spivey Overby, a Forrester analyst who co-authored the study, said she was surprised by those numbers until she started to think about what consumers were responding to.
"We've grown up with this view of the TV commercial interrupting our favorite program," she said. "There's this ad-equals-interruption mind-set that we have, and when you think about something as personal as the mobile phone that you hold in your hand and carry in your pocket, the idea of a marketer interrupting you while you have the phone, that's an idea that consumers hate. "
Much of that public disdain for mobile marketing may be fueled by bad PR, such as recent TV news reports about consumers getting spam on their phones -- and then having to pay for it through data charges. At first the major carriers were reticent to carry ads on mobile devices, citing the cost of handling customer complaints, and problems such as being forced to give consumers money back on their bills for products the consumers said they didn't request.
Sprint this fall became the first major carrier to announce it would offer ads on its "deck," the landing page for mobile consumers as they access information on the mobile web. (Ads have long appeared on "off-deck" websites, those sites accessed from outside a carrier's portal. Those sites typically are more difficult to access than a carrier's portal and carry far less traffic than a carrier's decks.)
Last week, Verizon Wireless became the second major carrier said it will place banner ads on its deck starting this year. Cingular Wireless, about to be renamed AT&T pending final government approval, has kept mum on its advertising policy. Mobile marketing spending has increased from $45 million in 2005 to an anticipated $150 million in 2006, and is expected to grow to nearly $1.3 billion by 2009, according to research firm Ovum.
It's all about value, wrote Ms. Spivey Overby with Forrester analyst Charles Golvin. The key is to avoid the mind-set that the marketing message will be an interruption and instead give consumers something they want.
"When you get into these intimate media like a mobile phone you have to change the way you think about marketing," Ms. Spivey Overby said. "You have to change the rules. It's a new mobile mindset-replacing the view of interruption with value
The report outlines three ways marketers can use the medium: text messaging, such as offering coupons and short codes; advertising with banner ads on a mobile browser; or creating ad-supported applications and content. But there are pros and cons to each. While text messaging is the most ubiquitous with the highest consumer adoption rate, it's far less immersive and interactive than ad-sponsored games, for example. And carriers are still reticent to allow advertisers to support free content on their service because it cannibalizes what has become a big business of selling ringtones, wallpaper and games.
Ultimately, Forrester advises that marketers consider the medium and the message. Keep the message abbreviated and be sure to measure the response, even using mobile responses to gauge the effectiveness of a broadcast media. Target campaigns to the people most likely to respond -- Gen X and Y are the targets most likely reached through mobile marketing. And adopt a mind-set of value -- Forrester advises finding a consumer who's unfamiliar with the campaign and asking him or her to find the value in it.
While it might be difficult for marketers to adjust their thinking, Ms. Spivey Overby said she sees some good early signs, such as what Toyota is doing with its Yaris brand by sponsoring Fox's mobisodes, a term for short videos for mobile.
Fox is "using shorter, punchier commercials," she said. "But many advertisers who aren't familiar in the space need to turn to their agency or a partner that understands the space to build for this medium."
And despite a negative public perception of mobile marketing, the study says there have been some early successes -- especially when ads are well-targeted and when the value of participating is clear. For example, the study discusses a Cambridge, Mass.-based grocer that replaced its loyalty cards with a mobile phone-based program. About 82% of shoppers now belong to the program.
"Marketers can't dismiss mobile," said Ms. Spivey Overby. "2007 is an exploratory year for most mainstream advertisers and we need to keep this in perspective because it's still a very new market."
AdAge.com
Big year for major media as congloms rebound
About this time a year ago, executives at most large entertainment companies were coming to terms with stock performances that couldn't keep pace with the major averages. The Walt Disney Co., News Corp., Time Warner Inc. and Viacom Inc. were each off about 10% in 2005. Investors looking for healthy returns more likely found them in new media than old.Last year, new media was a mixed bag, while Disney, News Corp. and TW advanced 44.3%, 34.7% and 26.3%, respectively.
Sure, Sony Corp., one of 2005's few winners among the big conglomerates, rose only 5.5% last year and Viacom only rose a paltry 2.5%, but CBS Corp., split from Viacom early last year, climbed 22.3%.
Some of it was predictable, given the unfavorable environment for media stocks in general -- not just in 2005 but also for the two years before that. In fact, as analysts do, they put their predictions in writing.
William Drewry of Credit Suisse, for example, wrote a year ago that "the biggest disconnect in market performance in 2005 was the underperformance of Disney and News Corp.," and he predicted Disney shares would climb as much as 65%.
Likewise, Jessica Reif Cohen of Merrill Lynch named Disney and News Corp., along with Comcast Corp., as her top picks. Comcast shares advanced 64.7% last year. More recently she's been bullish on shares of DreamWorks Animation SKG, which advanced 20.1% last year.
By contrast, new-media leaders like Yahoo! Inc. saw its shares sink 35.3% on the year. Even shares of Google Inc., enjoying a modest 11% rise, were no match for old media. And shares of Netflix Inc., which surged an index-leading 121% in 2005, sunk 4.4% last year.In fact, of the top 10 movers from The Hollywood Reporter's Showbiz 50 stock index, only one, RealNetworks Inc., is generally considered a new-media company. RealNetworks rose 39.8% last year.
The top movers on the index were Charter Communications Inc., up 148.4%, Dolby Laboratories Inc., up 81.9%, DirecTV Group Inc., up 76.4% and Marvel Entertainment Inc., up 65.1%.
Among the biggest losers were big-screen maven Imax Corp. and a host of radio companies.Imax, which couldn't find itself a buyer last year so took itself off the auction block, sank 47.3% during the year. Among the Showbiz 50, only Emmis Communications Corp., owner of about two dozen radio stations, and radio content provider Westwood One Inc. performed worse, down 58.7% and 55.2%, respectively.
Rounding out the index's bottom five were Sirius Satellite Radio, down 47%, and XM Satellite Radio, down 46.8%.Analysts had been worrying the entire year about satellite radio companies' growth prospects. Both firms reined in their subscriber-growth projections during 2006.
Sirius on Tuesday said it hit previously reduced numbers, ending the year with a little more than 6 million subscribers, 82% more than it had at year's end 2005. Sirius, run by Mel Karmazin, also said it achieved its first-ever quarter of positive free cash flow in the just-ended fourth quarter.
On top of a banner year for media stocks last year, analysts remain largely bullish this year.Miller Tabak & Co. analyst David Joyce, for example, predicts that shares of Lionsgate Entertainment, which advanced 39.5% last year, will go up about another 21% in the next year, while Disney shares will advance about 11%.
Even after Charter's near-150% surge, the stock is not about to rest, according to Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield, who sees about another 47% upside this year.As for the world's largest entertainment conglomerate, analysts see TW shares being boosted by AOL's resurgence, brought about by a dramatic re-embrace of online advertising, as well as the company's Time Warner Cable.Prudential Group analyst Katherine Styponias, for example, said that TW shares will be worth about 24% more in the next year.Part of the reason is that Styponias is more bullish on a TWC initial public offering than other analysts. That IPO, which she thinks could happen early this year, is, according to one of her recent research reports, "the place to be."
The Hollywood Reporter
Sure, Sony Corp., one of 2005's few winners among the big conglomerates, rose only 5.5% last year and Viacom only rose a paltry 2.5%, but CBS Corp., split from Viacom early last year, climbed 22.3%.
Some of it was predictable, given the unfavorable environment for media stocks in general -- not just in 2005 but also for the two years before that. In fact, as analysts do, they put their predictions in writing.
William Drewry of Credit Suisse, for example, wrote a year ago that "the biggest disconnect in market performance in 2005 was the underperformance of Disney and News Corp.," and he predicted Disney shares would climb as much as 65%.
Likewise, Jessica Reif Cohen of Merrill Lynch named Disney and News Corp., along with Comcast Corp., as her top picks. Comcast shares advanced 64.7% last year. More recently she's been bullish on shares of DreamWorks Animation SKG, which advanced 20.1% last year.
By contrast, new-media leaders like Yahoo! Inc. saw its shares sink 35.3% on the year. Even shares of Google Inc., enjoying a modest 11% rise, were no match for old media. And shares of Netflix Inc., which surged an index-leading 121% in 2005, sunk 4.4% last year.In fact, of the top 10 movers from The Hollywood Reporter's Showbiz 50 stock index, only one, RealNetworks Inc., is generally considered a new-media company. RealNetworks rose 39.8% last year.
The top movers on the index were Charter Communications Inc., up 148.4%, Dolby Laboratories Inc., up 81.9%, DirecTV Group Inc., up 76.4% and Marvel Entertainment Inc., up 65.1%.
Among the biggest losers were big-screen maven Imax Corp. and a host of radio companies.Imax, which couldn't find itself a buyer last year so took itself off the auction block, sank 47.3% during the year. Among the Showbiz 50, only Emmis Communications Corp., owner of about two dozen radio stations, and radio content provider Westwood One Inc. performed worse, down 58.7% and 55.2%, respectively.
Rounding out the index's bottom five were Sirius Satellite Radio, down 47%, and XM Satellite Radio, down 46.8%.Analysts had been worrying the entire year about satellite radio companies' growth prospects. Both firms reined in their subscriber-growth projections during 2006.
Sirius on Tuesday said it hit previously reduced numbers, ending the year with a little more than 6 million subscribers, 82% more than it had at year's end 2005. Sirius, run by Mel Karmazin, also said it achieved its first-ever quarter of positive free cash flow in the just-ended fourth quarter.
On top of a banner year for media stocks last year, analysts remain largely bullish this year.Miller Tabak & Co. analyst David Joyce, for example, predicts that shares of Lionsgate Entertainment, which advanced 39.5% last year, will go up about another 21% in the next year, while Disney shares will advance about 11%.
Even after Charter's near-150% surge, the stock is not about to rest, according to Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield, who sees about another 47% upside this year.As for the world's largest entertainment conglomerate, analysts see TW shares being boosted by AOL's resurgence, brought about by a dramatic re-embrace of online advertising, as well as the company's Time Warner Cable.Prudential Group analyst Katherine Styponias, for example, said that TW shares will be worth about 24% more in the next year.Part of the reason is that Styponias is more bullish on a TWC initial public offering than other analysts. That IPO, which she thinks could happen early this year, is, according to one of her recent research reports, "the place to be."
The Hollywood Reporter
Year of the Comeback at overseas boxoffice
Six high-profile U.S. films, led by "Night at the Museum's" $48.9 million haul, collected more than $134 million at the overseas boxoffice as the final weekend of the festive season came to a triumphant close, cementing 2006 as the Year of the Comeback after 2005's Year of the Slump. Other high rollers as 2007 loomed were "Eragon," with $20.6 million, "Happy Feet" ($20.5 million), "Casino Royale" ($16.6 million), "The Holiday" ($16 million) and "Deja Vu" ($10.1 million).
Although 19 films each topped the benchmark $100 million in 2006, compared with 23 in depressed 2005, there was an amazing crop of bigger-than-ever grossers in 2006.Buena Vista International, the Walt Disney Co.'s overseas distribution arm, set a company record as "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" brought in $642 million from offshore movie houses.
The Johnny Depp starrer became the third film in industry history to hurdle $1 billion ($1.06 billion) at the worldwide boxoffice, following 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" ($1.12 billion) and 1997's "Titanic" ($1.83 billion).
Other weighty overseas scorers in 2006 included Sony's "The Da Vinci Code," with $539.1 million, 20th Century Fox's "Ice Age: The Meltdown" ($452 million) and Sony's "Casino" ($338.3 million).
In the over-$200 million bracket for 2006 were UIP/Paramount's "Mission: Impossible III," BVI's "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" ($453.5 million for an '05-'06 foreign total), Fox's "X-Men: The Last Stand" and BVI's "Cars." Two films topped $190 million, one surpassed $180 million, and eight exceeded $100 million. The overall '06 offshore boxoffice also was bolstered by a batch of over-$90 million achievers, among them BVI's "Chicken Little," UIP/Paramount's "World Trade Center," UIP/Universal's "Inside Man" and "The Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift"; Sony's "Click" and "Open Season"; and Summit Entertainment/Constantin's "Perfume: The Story of a Murderer."As has been a recent trend, a greater percentage of films are bringing in more from abroad than from North America -- for example, "Dead Man's Chest's" $642 million compared with domestic's $423.3 million; "Da Vinci's" $539.1 million compared with $217.5 million; "Ice Age's" $452 million compared with $195.3 million; and "Casino's" $338.3 million compared with $154.9 million.
And the international market frequently helps to bail out big-budget contenders from total disaster. "Poseidon's" meager $60.7 million from domestic release was somewhat salvaged by foreign's $121 million take. The family entry "Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties" picked up only $28.4 million domestically while bringing in $112.2 million overseas.
Over the weekend, "Night" played on 4,859 screens in 30 countries and reached an international cume of $70 million after two weekends. The Ben Stiller comedy pulled in $15 million (including previews) from holiday crowds in the U.K. attending at 479 screens. Australia delivered $5.1 million from 365; Germany ($6.2 million from 852); Mexico ($7.4 million from 927 -- hailed by Fox as the third-biggest all-time opening in the market); Korea ($3.8 million from 368); Taiwan ($2.6 million from 162); and Russia ($1.9 million from 427).
Fox's family fantasy "Eragon" lifted to $105.7 million in its third weekend in release, opening at No. 1 in Brazil with $1.5 million, called the third-biggest opening of the year in the territory. The second weekend in France increased 24% to $5.4 million for a market cume of $11.7 million; Germany took in $10.3 million in three weekends; Italy, $8.8 million in two; and Spain, $10.4 million in three.
The animated "Happy Feet" jumped to $114.2 million after picking up $20.5 million from 6,100 screens in 58 markets.The romantic comedy "Holiday" did better than it did over the Christmas weekend, drawing $16 million from 3,400 dates in 40 territories, raising its international gross to $70 million.
James Bond fans turned out in droves for "Casino" over the holiday weekend, delivering $16.6 million from 5,285 screens in 61 territories to hoist the international gross to $338.3 million.The Denzel Washington thriller "Deja Vu" hit a cume of $51.6 million after picking $10.1 million from 2,903 screens in 33 countries.
The Hollywood Reporter
Although 19 films each topped the benchmark $100 million in 2006, compared with 23 in depressed 2005, there was an amazing crop of bigger-than-ever grossers in 2006.Buena Vista International, the Walt Disney Co.'s overseas distribution arm, set a company record as "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" brought in $642 million from offshore movie houses.
The Johnny Depp starrer became the third film in industry history to hurdle $1 billion ($1.06 billion) at the worldwide boxoffice, following 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" ($1.12 billion) and 1997's "Titanic" ($1.83 billion).
Other weighty overseas scorers in 2006 included Sony's "The Da Vinci Code," with $539.1 million, 20th Century Fox's "Ice Age: The Meltdown" ($452 million) and Sony's "Casino" ($338.3 million).
In the over-$200 million bracket for 2006 were UIP/Paramount's "Mission: Impossible III," BVI's "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" ($453.5 million for an '05-'06 foreign total), Fox's "X-Men: The Last Stand" and BVI's "Cars." Two films topped $190 million, one surpassed $180 million, and eight exceeded $100 million. The overall '06 offshore boxoffice also was bolstered by a batch of over-$90 million achievers, among them BVI's "Chicken Little," UIP/Paramount's "World Trade Center," UIP/Universal's "Inside Man" and "The Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift"; Sony's "Click" and "Open Season"; and Summit Entertainment/Constantin's "Perfume: The Story of a Murderer."As has been a recent trend, a greater percentage of films are bringing in more from abroad than from North America -- for example, "Dead Man's Chest's" $642 million compared with domestic's $423.3 million; "Da Vinci's" $539.1 million compared with $217.5 million; "Ice Age's" $452 million compared with $195.3 million; and "Casino's" $338.3 million compared with $154.9 million.
And the international market frequently helps to bail out big-budget contenders from total disaster. "Poseidon's" meager $60.7 million from domestic release was somewhat salvaged by foreign's $121 million take. The family entry "Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties" picked up only $28.4 million domestically while bringing in $112.2 million overseas.
Over the weekend, "Night" played on 4,859 screens in 30 countries and reached an international cume of $70 million after two weekends. The Ben Stiller comedy pulled in $15 million (including previews) from holiday crowds in the U.K. attending at 479 screens. Australia delivered $5.1 million from 365; Germany ($6.2 million from 852); Mexico ($7.4 million from 927 -- hailed by Fox as the third-biggest all-time opening in the market); Korea ($3.8 million from 368); Taiwan ($2.6 million from 162); and Russia ($1.9 million from 427).
Fox's family fantasy "Eragon" lifted to $105.7 million in its third weekend in release, opening at No. 1 in Brazil with $1.5 million, called the third-biggest opening of the year in the territory. The second weekend in France increased 24% to $5.4 million for a market cume of $11.7 million; Germany took in $10.3 million in three weekends; Italy, $8.8 million in two; and Spain, $10.4 million in three.
The animated "Happy Feet" jumped to $114.2 million after picking up $20.5 million from 6,100 screens in 58 markets.The romantic comedy "Holiday" did better than it did over the Christmas weekend, drawing $16 million from 3,400 dates in 40 territories, raising its international gross to $70 million.
James Bond fans turned out in droves for "Casino" over the holiday weekend, delivering $16.6 million from 5,285 screens in 61 territories to hoist the international gross to $338.3 million.The Denzel Washington thriller "Deja Vu" hit a cume of $51.6 million after picking $10.1 million from 2,903 screens in 33 countries.
The Hollywood Reporter
Downloaded Digital Sound Tracks Up Two Thirds
Nielsen SoundScan reports that through the first 49 weeks of 2006, sales of individually downloaded digital tracks are up more than 67% over the same period in 2005, accounting for more than 525 million digital downloads; already 173 million more than 2005's annual total.
- In 2005, digital track sales reached 353 million; 150% higher than total track sales for all of 2004.
- In 2004, digital download track sales broke the 100 million mark with more than 140 million digital tracks sold.
- In 2006 to date, 54 tracks have sold more than 500,000 units as opposed to only 22 tracks in all of 2005. None reached that sales mark in 2004.
Digitally downloaded albums have increased more than 100% with 29.7 million YTD in 2006 versus 14.5 million in the same time period in 2005. In 2006 to date, 11 albums have sold more than 100,000 units digitally comparing to only 3 for the entire year in 2005 and none in 2004.
Nielsen SoundScan data coverage represents more than 95% of the digital music sales market, and Rob Sisco, President Nielsen Music, concludes that "It is clear that digitally downloaded music is continuing to enjoy tremendous and growing consumer acceptance."
Center for Media Research
Starbucks Starts Trans Fats Withdrawal
SEATTLE-BASED STARBUCKS HAS BECOME THE latest restaurant company to hop on the trans-fats-free trolley. The chain announced that today it begins serving trans-fats-free baked goods in 10 cities: Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. and Portland, Ore.
The initial 10-city rollout applies to stand-alone stores but not satellite locations like grocery or airport kiosks. Those locations are licensed by Starbucks, but run by other businesses.
The rollout has been in the works for about two years, according to a Starbucks spokesman. He also said that New York City's ban on trans fats did not spark Starbucks' decision. The New York City ban calls for restaurant cooking oil to be trans-fats-free by July 1, and for the fat to be absent from baked goods by July of 2008.
Health professionals consider trans fats, which are found in partially hydrogenated oils, to be dangerous to heart health.
Starbucks, which operates about 13,000 stores worldwide, posted net revenue (for its food service operations and coffee business) of $7.8 billion for fiscal 2006, which ended Nov. 16. The chain opened 2,199 new restaurants worldwide last year.
mediapost.com
The initial 10-city rollout applies to stand-alone stores but not satellite locations like grocery or airport kiosks. Those locations are licensed by Starbucks, but run by other businesses.
The rollout has been in the works for about two years, according to a Starbucks spokesman. He also said that New York City's ban on trans fats did not spark Starbucks' decision. The New York City ban calls for restaurant cooking oil to be trans-fats-free by July 1, and for the fat to be absent from baked goods by July of 2008.
Health professionals consider trans fats, which are found in partially hydrogenated oils, to be dangerous to heart health.
Starbucks, which operates about 13,000 stores worldwide, posted net revenue (for its food service operations and coffee business) of $7.8 billion for fiscal 2006, which ended Nov. 16. The chain opened 2,199 new restaurants worldwide last year.
mediapost.com
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